The contingency plan: weather, injuries, no-shows and other what-ifs

A short list of what could go wrong, each with the early sign, the moment you decide, who decides and what happens; lightning, heat, a lost child, a supplier who does not come; and the first aid and 911 basics in place.

The plan is a short list of decisions Understand

A contingency plan is a list of things that could go wrong at your event, each with a decision made ahead of time: what you will watch for, when you will decide, who decides, and what happens. FEMA's free independent study unit on special-event contingency planning, IS-15.b, frames the work as a hazard analysis: list what could happen, judge each item, and plan the response (FEMA's IS-15.b overview). It is written for public-safety agencies, and its audience includes community groups for whom event planning is not a regular job. For a backyard or a hall, the analysis fits on one sheet, one row per risk.

A trigger is the sign that starts a decision: a forecast, a sound, a time on the clock. A decision point is the moment the decision is made, and it works best as a time or an observable event rather than "if it gets bad". Convention Rate each row low, medium or high for likelihood and minor, serious or event-stopping for harm. Our convention for which rows stay on the list: anything event-stopping stays, however unlikely (lightning, a lost child, a serious allergic reaction); anything likely and minor gets a one-line answer (a guest cancels). Convention

The contingency sheet starts with rows from your setup: outdoors adds lightning, heat, rain and wind; children add a lost child; alcohol adds a guest who has drunk too much; food adds food out too long and an allergic reaction; a hired supplier adds a no-show. Who decides on the day is the same person or deputy named in The event brief. The rows feed the run sheet: the weather watcher's name, the time of the go or move decision, the kit.

Weather: lightning and the weather watcher

The National Weather Service's Event Ready guide says every outdoor event plan should answer four questions (NWS Event Ready guide):

1. Which weather hazards could affect the event?
2. Where can people shelter, or how do they leave?
3. How will you alert them?
4. How long will it take to tell everyone and then move them?

It adds that for most warm-season outdoor events, lightning is what sets the plan in motion. It recommends naming one person to watch the weather and activate the plan. Its term is a Weather Liaison; NWS's lightning toolkit calls the role a weather watcher. We use weather watcher: one named person who checks the forecast before and during the event and starts the plan, ideally someone with the authority to do so and not the host who is busy greeting guests. NWS's toolkit asks the watcher to check at least three weather sources and to tell guests in advance when storms are forecast (NWS Lightning Safety Toolkit for Outdoor Venues). Event Ready says people warned ahead respond faster when the weather turns.

Lightning

NWS's lightning page states the rule plainly: "There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area." If you hear thunder, you are likely within striking distance; its short form is "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors" (NWS Lightning Safety). Two more NWS pages say the same: the toolkit says no place outside is safe if lightning is in the vicinity, and NWS's outdoor page says the only completely safe action is to get inside a safe building or vehicle (NWS: When a Safe Building or Vehicle is Nearby). Physical principle

• Go early. NWS says delays in reaching a safe place lead to many lightning deaths and injuries, and that a large group needs extra time.
• Wait 30 minutes after the last thunder before going back out (NWS's outdoor page; the toolkit uses 30 minutes after the last thunder or lightning).
• Know how long the move takes. Event Ready's timing formula adds three parts: the time to alert people and get helpers moving, the time for everyone to reach shelter, and a 25 percent safety factor for delays. It says people with limited mobility may need help and more time. With 45 guests, two minutes to alert and five to cross a yard come to 7 minutes; with the 25 percent added, about 9. A worked example for a park is under Go deeper.

Heat

The heat index is NWS's measure of how hot it feels when humidity is combined with air temperature: 96°F at 65 percent humidity feels like 121°F. Its values assume shade and light wind, and full sunshine can raise them by up to 15°F (NWS Heat Forecast Tools). NWS's experimental HeatRisk tool gives a heat concern level up to seven days ahead. For a summer event outdoors, put shade, water and the heat-illness steps on the plan, and remember the food rule: above 90°F, perishable food stays out no more than 1 hour (Feeding a crowd).

Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are the two heat illnesses above; NWS calls heat stroke a severe medical emergency. It also warns that a fan can make a person hotter when the heat index is above the 90s (NWS: Heat Cramps, Exhaustion, Stroke). The page relays CDC's guidance.

Rain, wind and tents

Rain. A rain plan is a place everyone fits, or a smaller program. Check that place's capacity the way you checked the main one (Venue and layout); a pavilion that seats 60 does not hold 80 out of the rain. A park may not refund for weather: Boulder's shelter rules say no refunds are given for inclement conditions and offer rescheduling if space allows (City of Boulder's park shelter reservations).

Wind and tents. Event Ready asks, "What is the wind threshold of your tents?" There is no single answer. The tent maker rates the tent, and local rules differ: Grand Rapids, Michigan, says tents must be evacuated when the average wind speed exceeds 30 mph (City of Grand Rapids tent requirements), and the Sedona Fire District's 2016 sheet says all tents and canopies come down when the wind exceeds 15 mph (Sedona Fire District's tent and canopy safety sheet). Use the lower of the maker's rating and your local rule, and ask your fire department what the local rule is. Ask the authority Sedona's sheet also says most accidents at events involve windblown tents and canopies, and asks for the maker's ground anchors or about 25 pounds of weight per leg; UC Irvine's safety office, without a maker's figure, uses 40 pounds per leg for a 10-by-10-foot canopy (UC Irvine's canopy safety guide). Product-specific Tent permits are in Permits and insurance.

A tent is not shelter in lightning (NWS). Event Ready also relays FEMA's question about site hazards such as utility lines that high wind could bring down; look up before you pitch.

First aid and 911

The emergency fields on the contingency sheet are the facts you would need in the first minute: the street address for 911 (for a park, the nearest street address or entrance), the nearest urgent care or hospital, where the first aid kit is, who has first aid training, where the nearest AED is (an automated external defibrillator, a portable device that checks a heart's rhythm and can deliver a shock), the weather shelter, the weather watcher, and the lost-child meeting point. Print them on the run sheet.

The kit

The American Red Cross lists a first aid kit for a family of four (Red Cross's Anatomy of a First Aid Kit):

• 2 absorbent compress dressings (5 by 9 inches); 25 adhesive bandages in assorted sizes; 1 roll of adhesive cloth tape (10 yards by 1 inch)
• 5 antibiotic ointment packets; 5 antiseptic wipe packets; 2 hydrocortisone ointment packets; 2 packets of aspirin (81 mg each)
• 1 emergency blanket; 1 breathing barrier with a one-way valve; 1 instant cold compress; 2 pairs of large nonlatex gloves
• 1 roller bandage 3 inches wide and 1 roller bandage 4 inches wide; 5 sterile gauze pads 3 by 3 inches and 5 at 4 by 4 inches; 2 triangular bandages
• An oral thermometer (non-mercury, nonglass); tweezers; emergency first aid instructions

The Red Cross says to check expiration dates and add personal medications and emergency phone numbers. It does not scale the list for a larger group; for 80 people, our convention is more bandages, gloves and cold packs, and the kit placed where helpers know to find it. Convention Pack it with the day-of kit.

An AED, and a class

The Red Cross's AED steps apply to an adult, or a child 8 or older weighing more than 55 pounds, who is not breathing: have someone call 911, turn the AED on and follow its voice prompts, and keep everyone clear while it analyzes (Red Cross AED steps). That page sits in the Red Cross's class section, which offers first aid, CPR and AED classes. A class is the way to learn these skills; this chapter only tells you where the kit and the device are. Ask the authority

The people rows

• An allergic reaction. FSIS says symptoms can appear within minutes or up to 2 hours after eating, and in an emergency you call 911 (FSIS's Big 9 page). Prevention is in Feeding a crowd.
• A guest who has drunk too much. NIAAA says to call 911 if you suspect an alcohol overdose, not to wait for all the signs, that blood alcohol can keep rising after the last drink, and that cold showers, coffee and walking do not reverse an overdose (NIAAA's Understanding the Dangers of Alcohol Overdose). The decision point for rides is before anyone reaches the car; Feeding a crowd has the host's part.
• Heat illness. The steps are in heat.
• An injury. The kit, the person with training, and 911 for anything serious.

A lost child

We found no US public body that publishes a lost-child procedure for a small event. Two English councils do: Telford & Wrekin Council's event template and Dover District Council's guidance from Kent Police (Telford & Wrekin's lost and found children policy; Dover District Council's lost and found child procedure). The steps below are the ones both share, labelled as UK practice and scaled to a party.

1. Agree a meeting point in advance and tell the children. Both procedures use one central point. Dover's advice is to name it something like "control" or the first aid table rather than a missing-person point. At a reunion, our convention is a fixed spot at the pavilion that every child is shown on arrival. Convention
2. Take a description at once. Dover's record asks for the child's name, age, hair color, height, glasses, clothing, the time they went missing, where they were last seen, and a phone number for the parent.
3. Search at once. Send helpers to the places you named in advance, starting with the ones that worry you most: water, the parking lot, the road. Which places come first is the host's call.
4. Do not announce the child's name over a speaker. Dover says the name is not announced over a PA or radios; Telford's announcements give no name, description or personal details. Call for the parent to come to the meeting point instead.
5. Call the police whenever you are worried. Neither procedure makes you wait for a set time before calling; call 911 at once if anything seems wrong.
6. When a child is found, two adults stay with them (both procedures). Dover says to give no food or drink except plain water, in case of allergies.

Prevention is supervision: a named adult watching each hazard, such as water, in shifts. Volunteers and helpers covers the shifts and the organization's own screening rules.

Power, suppliers, crowding and an ill host

Power out

Ready.gov says a closed refrigerator keeps food cold for about four hours, and to throw out food that has reached 40°F or higher; coolers with ice and a thermometer take over (Ready.gov's Power Outages). This manual does not teach generator operation; follow the maker and the fire department. Where it goes is a planning question, and the federal guidance is consistent: CDC's carbon monoxide page says not to use generators, grills or other gasoline-, propane- or charcoal-burning devices inside a home, garage or carport, or near doors, windows or vents, and to keep generators at least 20 feet from doors, windows and vents (CDC's Avoiding Carbon Monoxide Poisoning). Ready.gov gives the same 20 feet from windows, doors and attached garages. Physical principle Clark County, Nevada's fire department keeps tents 20 feet from internal combustion engines, among other things (Clark County Fire Department's tent guideline); ask yours (Permits and insurance). When rain moves a party into a garage, the grill and any generator stay outside, away from its doors.

A supplier who does not come

The trigger is a time: our convention is a call to the supplier if it has not arrived 30 minutes after its arrival time on the run sheet, and a decision on the backup 30 minutes after that. Convention The phone number is on the contact sheet. The backup is written on the row: a restaurant order, a store run, a smaller menu. On the money side, a deposit paid by credit card carries the federal billing-error rule: services not delivered as agreed count as a billing error, and the card issuer must receive your written notice within 60 days of the statement (15 U.S.C. section 1666). The Insurance Information Institute says special event insurance can let you recover some costs when a vendor does not show (Insurance Information Institute on special event insurance). The budget has the contingency line that pays for a backup.

Too many people

Where a room has a posted occupant load, that number governs; Fairfax County's fire marshal describes the sign, posted near the main exit in rooms of assembly for 50 or more (Fairfax County Fire Marshal's assembly occupancies page). A park can enforce its own limit: Fairfax County's park rules say a group over its reservation's capacity may be required to leave, without a refund (Fairfax County Park Authority's picnic area rules). The trigger is the count at the door against the number on your sheet; the decision is whether to stop admitting people or open a second space. Venue and layout has the capacity check.

The host is ill, or a guest cancels

The row for an ill host names the deputy who runs the day and the time by which the host decides to step back. The Insurance Information Institute says most special event policies cover the death, illness or serious injury of a key participant. A guest who cancels at short notice is usually a minor row: a place setting, a seat, perhaps the food count if the caterer's deadline has not passed.

Calling it off, moving it or cutting it short

Four choices exist when something large goes wrong before or during the event: go ahead, move it (indoors, another place, another date), shorten it, or cancel. Write the row before you need it.

• A decision date and time. For weather, our convention is a go-or-move decision the morning of the event, with a second look before guests arrive. For a supplier or a venue, the date is set by its cancellation terms. Convention
• One person who decides, with the facts that decide it written down: the forecast, the count, the supplier's answer.
• The terms that set the cost. Read them before booking. Boulder's park shelters refund 50 percent at 15 days or more and nothing at 14 days or less, and nothing for weather. Vanderbilt's caterer says that "inclement weather is not a valid cause for cancellation" under contract, and charges 75 percent of the contract for cancelling between 48 hours and two weeks out and 100 percent inside 48 hours (Vanderbilt Catering's policies). Hiring suppliers lists the questions. Product-specific
• Cancellation insurance. The Insurance Information Institute describes special event insurance that covers cancelling or postponing for adverse weather and other events outside your control, for gatherings such as a graduation party or an anniversary, and says to check what your credit cards and homeowners policy already cover and ask what is excluded. Ask an insurer; Permits and insurance covers the question. Ask the authority
• Telling guests. One message, in the channel your guests use, with the same words for everyone: what changed, where to go, and when. NWS's Event Ready guide says people told ahead that weather might change plans respond faster, and its toolkit says to tell guests in advance when storms are forecast.

See it: Marcus, Elena and the Okafors See it

Practice: write the contingency plan Practice

Minimum: four rows with a decision and a person on each, and the emergency fields. Time: about 30 to 45 minutes. Materials: the event brief, the what could go wrong table, the contingency sheet, a phone with a map, and your venue's or supplier's cancellation terms.

1. Filter the risk table to your setting and copy four to six rows to the contingency sheet. Keep every event-stopping row.
2. Fill each row's columns: sign, decide by, who, what we do, who we tell.
3. Fill the emergency fields. Find the nearest AED and urgent care on the map; ask who has first aid training.
4. Outdoors: name the shelter and the weather watcher, and time the move with Event Ready's formula.
5. Write the go-or-move decision time and who makes it, and note the cancellation terms beside it.
6. Share the plan with your helpers and put the weather watcher and the kit on the run sheet.

Your event Your event

Check your work Check your work

Criteria

• Does every row have a sign, a decide-by time or event, one person, and an action?
• Are the emergency fields filled in, including the street address for 911 and the kit's location?
• For an outdoor event, is the lightning shelter a building or a car, and is a weather watcher named?
• Does the move fit before the trigger you chose, with the 25 percent added?
• If children are coming, is there a meeting point the children are told?
• Is there a go-or-move decision time, with the supplier and venue terms beside it?

Worked example

Marcus's four rows each have a sign, a time, his name and an action, and his emergency fields name his address, the kit in the bathroom cabinet and the nearest urgent care. No weather or child rows apply. It passes. The dessert question is still open until the guest answers.

Common mistakes

• "If it gets bad" as the trigger. Write a sign or a time.
• The tent or pavilion as the lightning shelter. NWS says it is not one.
• The host as weather watcher. The host is busy; name someone else.
• Waiting a set time before calling the police about a missing child. Call whenever you are worried.
• A rain plan that does not fit everyone. Check the second place's capacity.
• Reading the cancellation terms after the forecast turns. Read them before booking.

What is still unresolved

The local tent wind rule and permits are the fire department's (Permits and insurance). Whether a policy covers your event is the insurer's answer. Whether your second space fits everyone is in Venue and layout. Who covers each shift, including the pond or the children's area, is in Volunteers and helpers. What to do with the kit is taught in a first aid class, not here.

Knowledge check and scenario

Checklist

• The contingency sheet has a decision and a person on every row, and the emergency fields are filled in.
• For an outdoor event, the lightning shelter and the weather watcher are named.
• The first aid kit is packed and its location is on the run sheet.
• The go-or-move decision time and the cancellation terms are written down.
• I walked and timed the move to shelter. (Go deeper; optional)